病态总体最小二乘问题的谱修正迭代法     

于冬冬  王乐洋 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(4):702-706

针对病态问题岭估计法及正则化方法存在破坏方程的等量关系、解是有偏估计的问题,在最小二乘谱修正迭代法的基础上,提出病态总体最小二乘问题的谱修正迭代法,并推导了总体最小二乘谱修正迭代法及其改进算法的具体公式。通过算例验证和阐明了TLS谱修正迭代法在病态问题中的有效性和易受迭代初值影响的缺点。  相似文献   

双拱初始缺陷海底管线水平向整体屈曲数值模拟分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘润  刘文彬  洪兆徽  闫澍旺 《海洋科学》2015,39(8):86-94

为了研究具有双拱反对称初始缺陷海底管线的整体屈曲特性,采用模态分析法将最可能出现的缺陷形态引入数值分析模型中。针对管线在高温高压作用下发生整体屈曲的动态变形特征,运用显式动力数值模拟方法研究了管线整体屈曲过程中水平向变形与轴向变形随温度和内压的变化规律,建立了在整体屈曲过程中屈曲管段与滑动管段轴力的变化过程与初始缺陷形态的关系。将数值模拟结果同经典解析解和室内模型实验结果进行对比,验证了本方法的可靠性。工程算例的分析结果表明,管线整体屈曲的发生是一个由低阶向高阶发展的过程,具有双拱缺陷的管线首先发生二阶模态的整体屈曲,而后过渡到四阶模态;管线整体屈曲的变形包括屈曲段的水平向变形和滑动管段的轴向缩进,其中水平变形释放了管壁内的轴力,轴力的释放量随初始缺陷尖锐程度的降低而增大;轴向缩进变形由于受到地基土的摩阻力使滑动管段内的轴力发生累积,轴力的累积量随初始缺陷的尖锐程度的降低而增加。以上研究成果对指导实际工程具有现实意义。  相似文献   

初始场的同化对短期气候预测的影响     

官元红  周广庆  陆维松 《南京气象学院学报》2011,(4):331-340

基于已建立的三维变分资料同化系统(3D-VAR),利用大气环流模式(IAP9L2°×2.5°-AGCM),对同化和未同化2种初始场分别进行了17a(1988—2004年)的集合回报试验,并对试验结果进行了相关分析.结果表明:在热带地区,2组初始场下的集合回报结果差别很小,除热带外的中高纬地区差别较大,尤其是东亚地区;另外,大部分物理量场的17a异常空间相关系数的均值在同化后的初始场下也得到了提高,可能是因为同化的初始场包含了一段时间的大气信息,动力模式更加协调.  相似文献   

A Method of Initial Vortex Relocation and Numerical Simulation Experiments on Tropical Cyclone Track   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

袁金南  宋丽莉  黄燕燕  陈子通  刘春霞  丁伟钰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(1):36-42

Using the technique of smooth filtering and cylindrical filtering, the initial vortex circulation and large-scale environmental field were separated from the background field. Then the separated initial vortex circulation was translated and reinserted in the location where it was observed. This led to the determination of a method of initial vortex relocation. For seven tropical cyclones at 23 points of measurement time in the years of 2006 and 2007, two schemes, either directly adding a tropical cyclone bogus model in the background or adding it after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field, were employed. Simulation experiments were compared. The results showed that the mean errors of the simulated tropical cyclone tracks at 24 and 48 hours were both smaller with the scheme of adding tropical cyclone bogus model after the relocation of the initial vortex in the background field. The relocation method of the initial vortex decreases the error caused by the deviation of the initial tropical cyclone location in tropical cyclone models. The relocation method is conducive to improving the track forecast of tropical cyclone models and has a good perspective for operational application.  相似文献   

Analysis of the Trends of Thunderstorms in 1951–2007 in Jiangsu Province   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

魏建苏  刘梅  张备  俞剑蔚 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(1):58-63

Based on the 1951–2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu, a study is conducted for their climate trends, periodicity, spatiotemporal patterns, and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate, wavelet analysis, and GR for diagnosis. Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province. The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring, when the variation is not significant in the study period. In this province, the TSD number declines by ~2 days per 10 years. On an inter-annual basis, the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s, the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s, the late 1980s, and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, the mid-to-late-1990s, and the late 1990s to 2007. There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province. At 50% GR, the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR, the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October). For the distribution of periods, the periods >8–10 years are relatively stable for the entire province. Based on 1951–2007 period analysis, the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years.  相似文献   

基于雷达回波最大重叠率的一种临近降水预报方法          下载免费PDF全文

李建通  高守亭  郭林 《大气科学》2011,35(3):519-530

基于天气雷达的临近降水预报是雷达短时预报业务系统的重要组成部分,本文在回顾雷达临近降水预报技术发展的基础上,充分考虑新一代天气雷达高时间、空间分辨率的优点,提出两个相邻时刻雷达回波具有最大重叠率的移向、移速是与降水系统整体的移向、移速密切相关的论点,再用此移向、移速对当前雷达回波进行平移,最后采用九点平均的回波生消模型...  相似文献   

Divergence of solutions to perturbation-based advection-dispersion moment equations     

Kenneth D. Jarman  Alexandre M. Tartakovsky 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(5):659-670

Moment equation methods are popular and powerful tools for modeling transport processes in randomly heterogeneous porous media, but the application of these methods to advection-dispersion equations often leads to erroneous oscillations. Perturbative methods, required to close systems of moment equations, become inaccurate for large perturbations; however, little quantitative theory exists for determining when this occurs for advection-dispersion equations. We consider three different methods (asymptotic approximation, Eulerian truncation, and iterative solution) for closing and solving advection-dispersion moment equations describing transport in stratified porous media with random permeability. We obtain approximate analytical expressions for time above which the asymptotic approximation to the mean diverges, in particular quantifying the impact that dispersion has on delaying—but not eliminating—divergence. We demonstrate that Eulerian truncation and iterative solution methods do not eliminate divergent behavior either. Our divergence criteria provide a priori estimates that signal a warning to the practitioner of stochastic advection-dispersion equations to carefully consider whether to apply perturbative approaches.  相似文献   

A comparison of robust polynomial fitting, global geopotential model and spectral analysis for regional–residual gravity field separation in the Doñana National Park (Spain)     

A. Martín  M.A. Núñez  J.A. Gili  A.B. Anquela 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2011,75(2):327-337

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L形和U形三维钝体结构绕流的数值模拟研究     

李庆祥  周云  汪大洋 《地震学刊》2011,(3):247-254

采用大涡模型对L形和U形三维钝体建筑物的绕流特性和风压分布特性进行数值研究。考虑平均和脉动速度入口边界,在雷诺数为1.5×10~5～7×10~5条件下,对2种钝体的9种分析工况进行瞬态动力分析,并将计算结果与已有研究进行对比。研究表明,钝体绕流对周围流场影响的强弱程度依次为尾流区、屋顶区、来流区,影响大小随着流场与钝体之间距离、钝体建筑高宽比、离地高度的增大而减小,且对来流区0.25H、屋顶上部0.4H、左右两侧0.5H、尾流区2.0H范围内流场的影响最大;钝体迎风面风压分布比较均匀,而侧面、背面和顶面受绕流涡旋的影响较大,平均风压分布较为复杂,并与脉动风压分布具有类似的变化趋势。研究结果对结构抗风设计与建筑风环境设计具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

云南省元阳县传统水稻梯田的农业土壤评价     

Gilles COLINET  Keiko KOULOS  吴伯志  李永梅  Daniel LACROIX  苏友波  Jean CHAPELLE  Michael A. FULLEN  Trevor HOCKING  Laurent BOCK 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2011,(4):353-361

作为元阳水稻梯田农业生态系统可持续性评价的一部分,本文调查了箐口流域梯地的自然生物环境,评价了农业土壤的土壤肥力,采用地质—地貌—土壤信息相结合的方法建立了土壤—景观之间的组合模式。研究确定了人为、气候、地形因素为影响土壤形成的主要因素,评价了土壤潜在生产力以及相关的限制因子,并根据FAO体系,确定并划分了主要的土壤类型。研究结果表明：土壤肥力的空间分布相当均一;土壤属酸性,阳离子代换量和养分储量总体较低;农业生态系统在较大程度上受哈尼群众人为活动的影响,成功维持了相对活跃的养分循环系统。目前的研究集中在：（1） 本研究区域在整个哈尼梯田系统中的代表性评价;（2） 田间水平上的养分循环研究;（3） 土壤特性对作物产量的影响;（4） 将田间水平的研究结果应用于更大的空间单元。  相似文献